“And along came the stick that beat the dog, that bit the cat, that ate the mouse…”
It is a story built on a chain reaction: each event triggers the next. Looking at international markets today, that old nursery rhyme feels almost like the instruction manual for the global economy.
The End of “Linear” Globalization
For years, we imagined globalization as a simple straight line: buy where it costs less, sell where there is demand. Then came Trump’s American tariffs. Many spoke of the end of globalization. In reality, it hasn’t ended at all. It has simply become more complex and far more fragile.
The Domino Effect: Facts, Not Opinions
Data from recent months speaks clearly. We all know the story of oil: any crisis in the Persian Gulf impacts the gas pump within days—from price to fuel availability. But that is just the tip of the iceberg.
Tensions in the Persian Gulf push up gas prices, which drag down nitrogen fertilizers with them—and consequently, wheat and corn harvests, all the way to the plates of millions of people. Helium is also derived from gas, which is indispensable for cooling microchip production machinery. But it isn’t the only critical gas: before the war in Ukraine, 50% of the world’s neon—necessary for the lasers that engrave chips—came from just two Ukrainian companies. When supplies stopped, the entire global automotive industry trembled.
Since April 7, 2026, Turkey has banned sulfur exports for six months, worsening the shortage from Hormuz: prices are up by 35-40%, leaving European and Mediterranean farmers in distress. Meanwhile, Iran, which produces 90% of the world’s saffron, is at war: Italian producers have stocks for only 6-7 months. Every raw material is a thread in a spider’s web. You only need to pull one to make the whole structure shake.
The Real Lesson for SMEs
In this scenario, exporting is no longer enough: you need to know how to manage risk.
But there is an often-forgotten note: it’s not just about where you sell, but where you buy from.
Italy is a country poor in raw materials. Almost everything we transform comes from abroad. Monitoring your target markets is necessary, but if you don’t know who you depend on for your purchases, you are only managing half the risk. Turkish sulfur, Ukrainian neon, and Iranian saffron are not just economic news curiosities. They are links in your production chain—even if you don’t know it yet.
This means concrete choices: diversifying markets and suppliers, locking down contracts, monitoring key countries, and integrating external commercial intelligence sources.
Conclusion: Welcome to the “Fiera dell’Est”
Globalization is not dead. It has become a web of interdependencies where every local event triggers global effects. Every tariff is the “stick” that hits a production line, slows down a ship, empties a warehouse, or raises a price.
One wonders if Trump and Navarro ever found the time to listen to Branduardi’s song. Probably not. Because if they had studied the nursery rhyme, they would have understood that in an invisible web, you cannot hit the “mouse” without the entire fair paying the price. And indeed, today inflation is rising again in the US, consumer sentiment on economic prospects is at historic lows, and financial markets are watching Washington with growing nervousness.
For SMEs, there is only one moral: if you cannot stop the stick, at least make sure you aren’t the only dog in the yard.
And what about you? Have you already mapped which countries your business depends on?