When some German customers reduce their orders, we tend to say that “Germany has come to a standstill”. But those figures describe our customer portfolio, not necessarily the German market as a whole.

This is an important distinction, especially for Italian SMEs that manufacture components or work as subcontractors. For many of them, Germany has long been their main export market, and a reduction in orders from one or two customers can have a significant impact on revenue.

The crisis affecting some German industrial sectors is real, starting with the automotive industry. However, it would be a mistake to conclude that the entire market no longer offers opportunities.

Germany remains a key market

In 2025, Italian exports to Germany reached €72.2 billion, up 2.3% from the previous year. Germany remained the leading destination market for Italian exports.

Customs statistics do not identify mechanical subcontracting as a distinct category. However, useful indications can be drawn from data relating to machinery, metals and metal products.

According to data published by ITKAM, trade between Italy and Germany in 2025 was driven mainly by transport equipment, mechanical engineering, chemicals, and food and agricultural products. Trade in machinery, as well as in metals and metal products, exceeded €19 billion.

These figures do not erase the difficulties facing German industry. They do, however, show that the market is still too important to be written off on the basis of a few negative experiences.

Before looking for new countries, let’s review our figures

Total revenue tells us how much we have sold, but it often fails to explain where the change has occurred.

In recent years, I have often reclassified an SME’s revenue by customer, application sector and geographic area, comparing the results of the last three financial years. It is an apparently simple exercise that frequently leads the business owner to look at the company’s performance from a different perspective.

An overall decline can conceal very different situations: the loss of a major customer, a contraction in a specific sector, difficulties in a particular geographic area, or a more widespread downturn.

Even stable revenue can hide opposing trends, with some sectors growing while others gradually lose importance. Where available, profit margins should also be considered, because not all revenue generates the same value for the company.

Before drawing up a list of new markets, we should therefore understand where the slowdown is actually coming from:

• one or two major customers;
• the application sector in which we operate;
• the market as a whole;
• or a loss of competitiveness compared with our competitors.

Each answer leads to a very different decision.

Comparing company performance with the market

Once we have reviewed the internal figures, we need to compare them with external market data.

How are German imports of the products we manufacture evolving? Is the market declining in value, volume or both? Which countries are gaining market share as suppliers? Is our company performing better or worse than the market?

Several tools are now available to carry out this type of analysis. Among others, I use the ExportPlanning platform, which has recently introduced a service based on monthly import data, available in both value and volume.

Comparing company performance with market trends helps us understand whether we are experiencing a general downturn or losing ground to other suppliers.

An SME does not need to monitor dozens of countries every month. It may be sufficient to follow its strategic markets more closely and periodically carry out a check-up on the others.

Figures must be combined with what is happening in the field

Data does not replace the experience of the sales team. It complements it.

Salespeople who visit customers and attend trade fairs can detect the postponement of new projects, greater pressure on prices, changes in the supplier base or the arrival of new competitors. However, this information needs to be collected systematically and compared with the figures.

Artificial intelligence can add a further layer of market intelligence. A company recently asked me to set up monthly monitoring of its main competitors using agentic AI tools.

The objective is to identify new products, participation in trade fairs, investments in machinery, agreements with distributors, partnerships and other useful signals that indicate how competitors are moving.

The goal is not to accumulate more news. It is to select relevant changes, verify the sources and assess their potential consequences. AI can carry out the monitoring work, but interpretation must remain in the hands of those who understand the company and its market.

An export check-up to decide how to move forward

The slowdown in orders from Germany can become an opportunity to carry out a broader check-up of the company’s international presence.

At the end of the analysis, we may decide to continue investing in Germany by targeting customers in different sectors, refine our positioning and sales approach, or gradually diversify into other markets.

An export check-up is not only about identifying new countries. Its primary purpose is to distinguish a market problem from an issue relating to customers, the sector or the company’s competitiveness.

Starting with the figures, comparing them with the experience of the sales team and turning them into a small number of concrete decisions may be the best way to get back on track.