There’s one sentence I hear more and more often when I sit down with business owners to talk about export strategy: “Pier Paolo, uncertainty weighs more than tariffs.”
Trade wars (and not only those), sudden shifts in the geopolitical landscape and cost pressures don’t just create customs barriers or price increases: they do something worse. They create hesitation. They lead to that paralysis in decision-making which, in the long run, is the greatest risk for anyone selling abroad.
And yet we are living in a paradox. Looking at the numbers, many of our SMEs will close 2026 with respectable, if not positive, results. But there is a clear feeling in the air that something is changing and that we can no longer carry on as before: a decisive change of pace is needed.
How should we respond to this scenario?
The most common reaction is: “We need to explore new markets.” The intention is excellent, but the risk of wasting resources and energy is extremely high if that exploration is done by sight.
A step up in export strategy: data first, then action
Just the other day I started working with an SME that manufactures mechanical components. They are redesigning their company website, and the first question on the table was the classic one: “Which languages should we translate it into? Which countries are we targeting?”
The owner’s answer, however, made all the difference: “Let’s stop for a moment. First let’s do a proper market analysis, understand where there is real demand and margin for our products, and then we’ll decide on the website languages and our commercial priorities.”
This is a real step up. And in practice, it doesn’t mean stopping for a month to theorise. With the tools and sources available today, a targeted market analysis takes no more than a few days of work.
Translating a brochure or three web pages into four languages without checking where it makes sense to go is not a sensible strategy: it’s just a translation cost. Choosing where to invest time and budget based on data, on the other hand, means turning a commercial need into a concrete strategy.
What about Germany? Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater
When we talk about uncertainty, our thoughts immediately turn north. There’s no denying it: the German automotive industry is going through a deep, structural crisis, and for many companies in our supply chain this has been – and still is – a heavy blow.
But Germany is not just automotive.
There are industrial sectors that keep performing well, investing and looking for reliable partners: industrial automation, plant engineering, medical, the energy transition, precision engineering not tied to combustion engines. Not to mention the massive infrastructure investments and the funds for modernising production that the German system is mobilising to relaunch its competitiveness.
Before writing off our leading trading partner or setting out on complex routes to the other side of the world, it’s worth checking whether there are alternative sectors, just a few hundred kilometres from home, ready to take on our expertise. Here too: what’s needed is analysis, not prejudice.
Towards 2027: what to put on the priority list
Looking ahead to 2027, the difference between those who will suffer uncertainty and those who will keep growing will come down to method. If I had to name three operational priorities to start working on right away, these would be my choices:
- Preliminary analysis of target markets and sectors: before investing time and resources in trade fairs, business trips or new catalogues, let’s check where foreign demand is genuinely active and accessible for a company of our size.
- Audit of the existing portfolio: let’s take a clear-headed look at our long-standing customers. How dependent are we on individual clients? What margins do they really leave us? Where can we consolidate, and where do we need to diversify?
- Bringing Artificial Intelligence into sales processes (with the right training): let’s be clear, AI is no longer a toy for quickly polishing an email in English. Today it is an extraordinary operational tool for analysing competitors, screening company databases, pre-qualifying prospects and monitoring industry trends. We can no longer afford to handle it through individual trial and error or leave it to the improvisation of a single employee: structured in-house training is needed to integrate it permanently into daily workflows.
Method beats uncertainty
International markets haven’t stopped: they have simply become more selective and less forgiving towards those who improvise.
The antidote to uncertainty is not to stand at the window waiting for better times, nor is it to shoot in the dark hoping to hit something. It is to equip yourself with a compass, put your internal processes in order and prepare for the new year with a clear export strategy.
Pier Paolo Galbusera
Internationalisation and Export Development Consultant for SMEs
progetticommerciali.it